The NBA postseason got off to an exciting start this week, as the second edition of the play-in tournament featured close games that clinched playoff appearances for Golden State, Memphis, Miami, and Orlando.
This playoff field is one of the most open we’ve seen in years. Below, we’ve previewed every first-round playoff series and predicted the outcome of each one.
West 1st Round:
Oklahoma City Thunder over Memphis Grizzlies in 4
Earlier in the season, the Grizzlies were a pleasant surprise: they had a 38-20 record at the end of February. March, however, was a disastrous month for Memphis; they went 6-11, losing “gimmes” against San Antonio, Sacramento, and Portland. Head Coach Taylor Jenkins was fired on March 28th and replaced by interim Tuomas Iisalo. The Grizzlies have looked unconvincing since, and they simply cannot match up with Oklahoma City. Memphis has a young core – Ja Morant, Scotty Pippen Jr., Jaren Jackson Jr. – so there’s hope for seasons to come, but the Thunder will already be getting their brooms ready.
Los Angeles Clippers over Denver Nuggets in 7
A fully healthy Clippers team is one of the strongest offenses in the NBA. Meanwhile, Denver have been a one man show this year, led by Nikola Jokic, who is having the best season of his career. Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray have been underwhelming this season, and Russel Westbrook is, well, Russell Westbrook. There wasn’t much separating these two teams in the regular season (both went 50-32), but cohesion and defensive ability give the Clippers a slight edge; LA was 4th in the league for points allowed and 3rd for defensive rating. Still, this has the potential to be a great series, and with game 7 in Denver, anything can happen.
Minnesota Timberwolves over Los Angeles Lakers in 6
When you compare public perception to the actual numbers, the Lakers are one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season. Los Angeles was in the bottom half of the league for almost all defensive stat categories, and adding Luka Doncic in a midseason trade didn’t help this. Make no mistake, it bolstered the Lakers’ offense, but that wasn’t their biggest problem. On the other hand, the Timberwolves are a highly physical team who can give opponents lots of trouble with their defense. Anthony Edwards was an offensive machine this season, too, making 4.1 threes per game and ranking fifth in the league in points per game. Upset potential: high.
Golden State Warriors over Houston Rockets in 6
This series poses one of the most interesting questions in basketball: when you have a pure “small-ball” team against a pure “tall-ball” teams, who comes out on top? History would tell you the tall-ball team (Houston) has a clear-cut advantage, but we’re in a new era of the NBA. While Houston will roll out a big lineup led by 6’11” center Alperen Sengun, the Warriors will stick to an offense focused on spacing and perimeter shooting. Stephen Curry may be 37, but he’s still the best behind-the-arc shooter in the NBA, and if “playoff Jimmy Butler” (who the Warriors acquired at the trade deadline) shows up, the Warriors have a solid chance to pull off an upset.
East 1st Round:
Cleveland Cavaliers over Miami Heat in 4
There’s really not much to say about this series. The Miami Heat are a team that wouldn’t have even made the Play-In Tournament if they were in the Western Conference, but thanks to a weak East, they’ve gotten the #8 seed. That’s the downside of Adam Silver new invention: the first round of the playoffs is now littered with extremely predictable matchups featuring teams with losing records. The Cavaliers losing this series is inconceivable.
Indiana Pacers over Milwaukee Bucks in 5
The Indiana Pacers beat the Bucks en route to an Eastern Conference Final appearance last year, and even if they don’t make it back to the ECF, it’s likely Indiana will fulfill the first part of their destiny. The only reason this series won’t be a sweep is because of the undeniable ability of Giannis Antetokounmpo, but this isn’t the NBA of the 2000’s where one superstar can drag his team to a championship. The Bucks traded away one of their best playoff performers, Khris Middleton, to acquire Kyle Kuzma, and Damian Lillard is set to miss at least one game due to a lower leg blood clot. Even though they’re the higher seed, the Bucks won’t be able to overcome the Pacers.
New York Knicks over Detroit Pistons in 7
The Pistons’ season has been nothing short of remarkable: in 2023-24, they had the worst record in the NBA, winning only 15 games. This year, they went 44-38, clinching the six seed in the East, and Cade Cunningham was an all-star. Detroit is a team with heart, but if New York is able to neutralize Cunningham, their offense will become stagnant. The Knicks are more well-rounded with the two-headed snake of Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns, and this will likely be the difference maker for the series.
Boston Celtics over Orlando Magic in 5
The Celtics may be known for their high-flying offense, but this is a defensive matchup at its core. The Orlando Magic had the fewest average points allowed in the league, right ahead of Boston at number two. Orlando also held their opponents to the fewest three-point field goals made, and this is the most important statistic for this series; most of Boston’s losses were a result of poor shooting performances. If the Magic can consistently hold the Celtics to under 100 points, they may have a chance, but this will be a tall task. The Celtics will be able to adapt to Orlando’s defense to easily win the series.
