This season, the UEFA Champions League adopted a new “league format” for the group stage of its historic competition. Initially, there were concerns about how the two or potentially four extra matches for each team would impact an already overcrowded schedule. However, with higher stakes, more upsets, and an extra round of knockout football, it has been a massive success.
Previously, the top two teams from eight groups of four would advance to the round of sixteen, while the rest of the teams were either sent to the Europa League or eliminated from continental competition altogether. This year, the top eight teams are automatically through to the final sixteen, while teams placed ninth through twenty fourth faced off in a two-leg matchup for a place in the next round.
This thrilling new playoff format had shocking results for some of the competition’s biggest competitors. Manchester City, AC Milan, and Juventus all failed to qualify, while underdogs such as Club Brugge and Feyenoord made it through. Now, the stage is set for the UCL Knockouts. Below is a prediction for the results of the entire tournament.
Round of 16:
Liverpool over PSG
This is one of the tougher matches to call. PSG underperformed during the group stage of the competition, while Liverpool earned twenty-one points, winning seven out of eight matches. Liverpool also has the advantage of playing the second leg at home, and PSG lost in 2-0 to English side Arsenal earlier in this competition. However, PSG’s signing of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia during the January transfer window should give them a big boost this time around. PSG will probably win the first leg at the Parc des Princes, and Liverpool will be able to find an aggregate equalizer at Anfield. This is a fixture that could truly go either way, but Liverpool have a more complete team that will help them advance.
Aston Villa over Club Brugge
The Belgian side Club Brugge have been one of the biggest success stories during this UCL. They earned a spot in the playoff round and decimated heavy favorites Atalanta. In fact, they beat Villa during the league phase. Sadly, it’s hard to see their Cinderella story repeating against Unai Emery’s Villa. Emery is an expert at European competitions, winning the Europa League four times, and his Birmingham squad should have a clear path to victory against Brugge.
Real Madrid over Atletico Madrid
The Madrid Derby has resulted in two 1-1 draws in La Liga this season. Simeone’s Atletico are content to sit back defending throughout a match, only getting up the pitch on the counterattack, while Real relentlessly attack with the best forwards in the world. It is a very intriguing tactical matchup, and both teams will likely keep these tactics in the UCL. The two ties may be as tight as the Derbies during La Liga, but Real’s success in the competition gives them a slight advantage.
Arsenal over PSV
The best defense in the Premier League against the best offense in the Eredivisie. PSV Eindhoven scored a shocking seventy-one goals in twenty-three matches, while Arsenal conceded 0.9 goals per match in the most competitive league in the world. Arsenal’s attack has been bogged down by a handful of injuries, but their defensive prowess should get them through to the quarterfinals for the second straight year.
Barcelona over Benfica
These two went head-to-head in Lisbon during the league phase, and the result was a chaotic 5-4 win for the Blaugrana. Barcelona are having a great season; they’ve scored the most goals in the Champions League and La Liga and are first place in Spain. It’s highly unlikely that their European campaign will end here.
Lille over Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund are having their worst domestic season in seventeen years: they’re in eleventh place in the Bundesliga, and it’s highly likely that they won’t have European football next season. Dortmund fired their manager earlier this season and lack an identity. Although a Lille victory would still be an upset, they have a strong team with star man Jonathan David and Alexsandro Ribeiro, and I believe they can get it done.
Bayern Munich over Bayer Leverkusen
German giant Bayern Munich have failed to win their last six matches against Bayer Leverkusen. Xabi Alonso’s team — who went from “Neverkusen” to “Neverlusen” after losing one match in all competitions last season – have drawn three and won three of the last six against Bayern. Despite this, Bayern have still controlled most of these games, and they’ve certainly looked like the stronger side in the Bundesliga. Leverkusen are a one man show that can quickly go awry, backed by talisman Florian Wirtz, and Bayern have extra motivation this year, with the Champions League final taking place at their own Allianz Arena.
Inter Milan over Feyenoord
Throughout eight group stage matches, Inter gave up one goal. This was thanks to spectacular goalkeeping from Yann Sommer (Inter conceded 7.5 expected goals, the third fewest among all teams), but Inter’s defenders were rock-solid as well. Feyenoord lost their striker Santiago Gimenez in January, so it will be even more difficult for them to get past the impenetrable Italian side.
Quarterfinals:
Liverpool over Aston Villa
Over the past two Premier League seasons, the Villa-Liverpool fixtures have followed a pattern: Liverpool shut out the visitors at Anfield for an easy win, and Villa respond with a draw at home. While this formula is satisfactory for the league, it will most likely result in Liverpool reaching the Champions League semifinal.
Real Madrid over Arsenal
A tale of two teams, two countries, two cities, and two tactical approaches: Arsenal are the greatest defense in the world right now, and Real Madrid are undeniably the greatest attack. Arsenal have the lowest xG conceded in the Premier League and Champions League, and their backline is anchored by the world-class center-back pairing of William Saliba and Gabriel, while Madrid’s fullbacks have struggled with stopping opposition wingers. Where they struggle defensively, the front four — Vinicius Jr. on the left, Kylian Mbappe at striker, Rodrygo on the right, and Jude Bellingham as the number ten – pick up the slack. The outcome of this tie rests heavily on the health of Bukayo Saka, Arsenal’s star winger who’s been out since December with a torn hamstring. If Saka is unavailable, it may be impossible for Arsenal to get past Madrid.
Barcelona over Lille
Even though Lille have enough talent to get past Dortmund (who were UCL runners-up last season), it’s hard to imagine a world where they are able to stop a thundering Barcelona attack. This should be a relatively easy tie for Barcelona.
Bayern Munich over Inter Milan
While Inter’s defensive approach is valuable in knockout football, it will be extremely difficult for them to keep Harry Kane from scoring over two legs. The Italian side also have a star striker pair in Lautaro Martinez and Denzel Dumfries, but Bayern have a stronger squad in almost every position. Plus, come the quarterfinals, the Bundesliga title will be done and dusted for Bayern, while Inter will still be fighting for first place in Serie A. It’s likely Bayern will return to the final for the second straight year.
Semifinals:
Real Madrid over Liverpool
When these two sides met at Anfield in November, the result was a 2-0 Liverpool win. Circumstances were quite different then, though: Vinicius Jr. was hurt and missed out, and Kylian Mbappe had yet to find his form for Los Blancos (he missed a penalty in the match). Now, Vinicius Jr. and Mbappe have developed lethal and chemistry, and Liverpool’s biggest defensive weakness is down their left, where Real Madrid target Trent-Alexander Arnold is constantly beaten by opposing wingers. Combine this with the facts that Liverpool’s holding midfield (Mac Allister and Gravenberch) will struggle to stop Jude Bellingham and that the second leg takes place in Madrid, and it seems more likely that Madrid will find a way through.
Barcelona over Bayern Munich
When these two sides met in October, the result was a resounding 4-1 win for Barcelona. Even though Bayern dominated possession, Barca’s all-out attack proved too much for the Germans. It’s hard to rout a side three times in one season, so these ties will likely be more of a nail biter, but Hansi Flick’s relentless risk-taking football may get the better of Kompany’s more modern approach.
Final:
Barcelona over Real Madrid
An El Clasico in the Champions League final would be a dream scenario for UEFA. What’s more marketable than one of the most storied, fierce rivalries in the game? Real Madrid beat Barcelona three times last season (a victory in the Supercopa final and two late victories in La Liga), but Barca have managed to change the tide: they humiliated Madrid 4-0 at the Bernabeu and 5-2 in the Supercopa final despite going down to 10 men early in the second half. The two most decorated sides will meet twice more in Spain this year, so Madrid will have a chance to get their licks back before the final. Yet in the end, Barcelona’s academy graduates (Gavi, Pedri, and Lamine Yamal) in addition to lethal goal scorers Raphinha and Robert Lewandowski could be the players that add a new chapter to the history of FC Barcelona.
