On every NHL Trade Deadline Day, there are teams that go big in order to avoid going home early during the Stanley Cup playoffs. Sometimes this strategy is a massive success: other times, though, renovating your roster with so little time left in the season can alter chemistry and cause a team to crash and burn.
This past Friday, there were three teams who stood out as big spenders: the Colorado Avalanche, who won the Cup three years ago but have faltered in the last two playoffs; the Dallas Stars, who reached the Western Conference Finals in successive seasons; and the Florida Panthers, who are looking to be the NHL’s first repeat champions since their neighboring Tampa Bay Lightning went back-to-back in 2020 and 2021.
The catalyst for Colorado’s Deadline Day activity came in January when they shipped their leading goal-scorer Mikko Rantanen to the Carolina Hurricanes in exchange for Martin Necas. The trade seemingly came out of nowhere, but Rantanen’s contract was set to expire in the summer, so it made sense that the Avalanche would want to get something in return for him before he inevitably walked in free agency. It turned out to be a good move for Colorado, as Necas fit like a glove on the top line with Hart Trophy winner Nathan MacKinnon. The cap space freed by the Rantanen-Necas trade allowed Colorado to make a big move for Brock Nelson, a number two option at center, and acquire Ryan Lindgren from the New York Rangers.
Colorado’s approach to the trade deadline is a smart one because they gave Necas time to settle into his new team before making a few more trades in March. This allows the Avalanche to upgrade their roster without putting too much on their players all at once, and they now look set to make a run in the playoffs.
The Stars had a slightly different approach. With about half an hour left before the trade deadline, the Stars acquired Mikko Rantanen from the Carolina Hurricanes in exchange for Logan Stankoven and four draft picks. Rantanen had struggled in his 13 games for Carolina, tallying just 6 points. He reportedly was also unwilling to sign an extension with the Hurricanes, so the Carolina front office sent him to Dallas where he signed an eight-year contract. Trading for Rantanen was the only trade Dallas made before the deadline, but they were already a Cup favorite. The Stars arguably have the most depth in the NHL, and taking a risk on Rantanen may be the thing to finally help them get over that elusive line.
The busiest team on deadline day was undeniably the Florida Panthers. After winning their first Stanley Cup this past summer, Florida showed that they won’t settle for anything short of another Stanley Cup. They acquired another defenseman in Seth Jones from Chicago, which was a position they needed to strengthen — especially with Aaron Ekblad’s 20-game suspension for violating the league’s PED policy. Additionally, their star left wing Matthew Tkachuk was placed on LTIR after sustaining an injury during the Four Nations Tournament. Naturally, the Panthers decided to fill this void by trading for Brad Marchand. The former Bruins captain is a player who many love to hate, and he’ll fit in perfectly from a hockey and locker room perspective (Florida have the reputation of being the “rats” of the league).
With three of the biggest Stanley Cup contenders spending big, the following question arises: are roster shake-ups the way to win in the NHL? To answer this, we can look at the Cup winners from the past two decades. Most teams who go on to hoist the coveted trophy make changes to improve their roster at the deadline, but adding the biggest names on the market isn’t typically what leads to success; rather, securing depth and strengthening the third- and fourth-lines makes an NHL team more dangerous in the playoffs.
So, will the Rantanen trade end up helping or hurting the Dallas Stars’s Stanley Cup chances? Truthfully, both of these scenarios are possible; Stanley Cup winners are determined by more than just the strength of their roster – strategy, coaching, and chemistry are all imperative – but patterns from past seasons point to the Panthers or Avalanche as Cup favorites.
